“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” All predictions are worthless, but they still keep coming. Why?
It seems that all there is these days… are people who predict constant catastrophes and people who predict glorious nirvana.
But Of Course
All the predictions are worthless. So why do people keep on making them, and why does everyone pay attention to them?
Human Nature
It seems human nature has several telling failures. One such fault is the urge to know what will happen. It becomes an incredible urgency to expect someone to divine the future. Humans have this insatiable desire for someone, anyone to reveal what will happen.
But No
Of course, it is all nonsense. Knowing the future is impossible. What makes it all continue however is the human fantasy that it still could happen. For thousands of years in all so many forms people have all looked for a method. From tea leaves to entrails to religous incantations, it all is useless. But it does have one use: it perpetuates the myth that someone somehow somewhere will finally figure it all out and be able to know.
Everywhere
This desire for knowing the future permeates all aspects of life. From the financial (what will the market do tomorrow?) to religion (we will meet again in heaven!) to the personal (my astrologer told me… ). There seems an unlimited supply of ways to not live in the present.
Not Present
Planning for the future is not a bad thing. We need insurance for the unexpected. Saving money, making healthy choices, behaving ethically all have been linked to a person’s association with their “future self.” So it is not a problem to think ahead. Where people often make a wrong turn is in the expectation that the future can be predicted, and then placing trust and faith in the someone or something we have invested that supposed talent.
Saving for retirement did not automatically mean I would be able to retire, nor did it mean I would have lived long enough to retire. Eating and living healthily does not automatically mean I will not get ill. Behaving ethically does not mean I will be rewarded. All of these behaviors may increase the likelihood that one ore more things could go well for me, but as we know, there are no guarantees in life.
Insecurity in a child’s life breeds tension and anxiety, so parents usually make many efforts to present the their world as a stable place. There is usefulness in this shielding. But at a certain point, it becomes self-defeating. Hiding the state of the world of course is an invention, not a reality. But this childhood supposition carries itself forward in our lives and destroys our perception of reality. The real world is chaotic and random. The real security comes from our abilities to be calm despite the reality of the world around us.
What are you prognosticating about? Let me know here.
The screenshot of consumer interest rate is taken from a bank statement of April 7, 1991.
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