Every day we are inundated with financial predictions and opinions, most of which, if not all, are fantasy. Economic analysts and others all seem to pontificate what they think will happen. Of course, a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Nobody Is Right, Nobody Is Wrong
I suppose most of these prognosticators are promoting a viewpoint, their businesses, their ‘brand.’ But the advice they offer is simply opinionated research, or at least simply opinions. No one can know what will happen. And as have seen consistently, unexpected and previously unknown things happen all the time.
Some who are reported in the financial press have degrees and advanced degrees. Some are simply people who got famous for being lucky investors. Some are political or sports figures with money and opinions. What connects them all is that they are human, and do not have any insight into future events, at least any more than you or I.
As a result, relying on these predictions is not worth the effort to hear them.
You Win Some, You Lose Some
Yes, I will be the first to admit that there are those who seem to hit a home run once in a while. You read the in press that so-and-so “called the last recession, and now says…” Predictions about the future are rarely fulfilled by anyone, even those who were right previously, and never consistently. Let them eat their predictions.
So What Can One Do?
Doing is often a curse. We feel impelled to “do” something. Constant trading is a path to losing everything. The best courses of actions is usually that with minimal doing, with the most basic of principles:
1. Live below your means.
2. Save the difference.
3. Build an emergency fund.
4. Invest a portion of savings.
How simple is that? I guess it is too simple for many. People who chase the hottest stock and think they are somehow better because their holdings are on the upswing… well tomorrow is another day, and it could be a down day. The amount of tension and stress needed to maintain daily financial vigilance of that kind is not worth the effort in my view. I sleep well because I know I am not speculating. As it is often said “time in the market beats timing the market.”
How do you accept not knowing what the market will do? Let me know here.
The illustration of a comet is one of a series from 1587 by an unknown author in a hand-lettered book entitled Kometenbuch (Comet Book), subtitled (in translation) “Comets and their General and Particular Meanings, According to Ptolomeé, Albumasar, Haly, Aliquind and other Astrologers.” It is currently in Universitätsbibliothek Kassel (Kassel University Library, Kassel Germany). License: Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0).
The post No One Really Know What Will Happen, Even in the Stock Market first appeared in Smile If You Dare.